Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid

Just eight weeks in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or a cause of the side's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

The Sideline Explosion of Elation

On Sunday, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six matches, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

According to Opta, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

A Formidable Weapon

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.

  • Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
  • The attacking talent could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
  • The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.

Tim Woods
Tim Woods

Dr. Elise van der Meer is a cognitive psychologist specializing in luck perception and positive psychology, with over 15 years of research experience.